Not necessarily. People go from party to party depending on how they thought the last president did. People though Carter was awful so they took their chance on the Hollywood actor. They thought Reagan was great, despite Iran-Contra, and voted for his VP, George HW Bush.
Bush raised taxes, earning the ire of his own party for violating a very important campaign promise, costing him the election in 1992. The people took a chance on Bill Clinton.
Clinton's ethics so disgusted people that even while supporting his economic policies (which resembled Republican policies near the end), that they went for George W Bush in 2000. Because people did not want to change horses during an important war, Bush was re-elected.
Now, in 2008, even Republicans for the most part can't stand Bush. Many think he was too liberal, while Democrats universally hated him for Iraq. And they fairly or unfairly blame the party which holds the White House for everything that goes wrong.
Like 1980, Obama has to pass a single test, the same test Ronald Reagan passed. He has to show the American people he isn't a total idiot. If he can look somewhat presidential, it doesn't matter much what his philosophy is. 2008 is not a pro-Obama year. It's an anti-Bush year. Don't confuse Obama's popularity for hatred for Bush.
Every poll is showing a large number of undecideds, twice that of 2004. That shows that Obama hasn't yet closed the deal with roughly 8% undecided and another 7% that say they may change their minds one way or another. That shows an electorate that is uncomfortable with both candidates and is looking for something else. I'll bet if none of the above were on the ballot, it would win.
McCain's only problem is that he's a Republican in an anti-Republican year. Obama's problem is that nobody knows a thing about him and don't know whether to believe his conservative-sounding rhetoric despite his history of being the #1 liberal in the Senate.
If people find Obama acceptable, he'll win. If they decide he's too far out of the mainstream, he won't. The election is not a referendum on McCain. It's a referendum on whether Obama is acceptable. Historically, undecideds break 2-1 or more for the challenger with the theory that if an incumbent hasn't closed the deal yet, he won't.
This year, the undecideds are on Obama since McCain is a very well-known quantity. If history follows, undecideds will break 2-1 for McCain. If the IBD/TIPP poll is correct, then McCain will win. They were the most accurate in 2004. If Gallup is correct, Obama will win as the undecideds won't matter in the final tally.
Remember that in 1980, the polls were tied between Carter and Reagan 3 days before the election, yet Reagan won in a landslide.
